December 7, 2022
Another big week! We can officially say we’re on fire at CSB, or as the kids say; en fuego (I’ll show myself out).
As the temperatures plummet around the country the spiciness quotient of the picks keeps rising. Coach Dennis Green’s famous quote comes to mind at this point of the season; “They are who we thought they were”. There’s not much hiding going on in the NFL by Week 14. Contenders have stood up tall and pretenders have skulked away to hibernate until the draft. Our metrics for making picks make more sense, we have cold, hard stats to rely on, and we don’t have to dig too deep for clues.
All that being said, none of it matters if you don’t stick the landing. We have 5 more weeks to either pad our own stats or crash and burn. I intend to ride our record into the postseason and make us proud, so let’s get to the dang numbers!
As always if you’re new to ATS betting in football, check out our convenient primer on Point Spread Betting and take a look at our new and improved Parlay Betting Guide should the mood strike to combine some of these picks!
Week X Record: 10-5 ? / Season Record: 105-90 ?
Without further ado, on to the Week 14 picks against the spread.
Thursday Night Game
Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
Things happen fast in the NFL, if you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you might miss something. For example, did you know that the Las Vegas Raiders have won 3 straight games? The same Raiders who on November 13th had just lost to Jeff Saturday in his coaching debut, sat at 2-7, and had about as much hope to get into the playoffs as my beer league softball team has of winning the World Series. Now those same Raiders sit at 5-7, one game behind the Chargers and Patriots in the “realistically have a shot” zone. Wacky.
Did you also know that Baker Mayfield is now the Rams QB? Seriously. Mayfield was waived on Monday, claimed on Tuesday and could very well play on Thursday. Blink and you’ll miss it.
What does it all mean for this particular game? Not all that much really. The Raiders are (currently) good, the Rams are (still) bad. LA has given up 400 yards of offense in two straight contests now, Aaron Donald is suffering from a high ankle sprain and is most likely out this week (if not for the rest of the season). Matt Stafford is out for the year. Cooper Kupp is out for the year. The Rams are out for the year.
Whatever Mayfield brings to the table is hindered in large part by the absences listed above. Were Mayfield stepping into last year’s Rams team? Maybe I could see a redemption ark materializing, but that’s simply not the case. A few flashes, a few dashes but ultimately not much substance, it’s hard to see the Rams being the team to stop Las Vegas’ current momentum.
Pick: Raiders Cover
Sunday Afternoon Games
Detroit Lions (-2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings
The collective NFL world is rubbing their eyes this morning, making sure they’ve read this right. The Detroit Lions are FAVOURED over the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings.
What can I say, I’ve been in love with this year’s edition of the Lions and it warms my heart to see them succeed. I’ve got no skin in the game, I just like seeing perennially downtrodden teams come good.
These two met in Week 3, with the Vikings eking out a 4 point win. The Lions led that game in passing yards, rushing yards, total yards and had nearly 10 minutes more possession that Minnesota. All in a losing cause.
Now in Week 14, at home, the Lions seem to possess that little bit extra. They are actually playing team defence, they are playing with confidence, and measurable success is in the picture for the first time in who knows how long (I’m sure someone knows, it just sounds better).
Earlier in the season it would be reasonable to assume the Lions put up a good effort and ultimately lose by a field goal to a playoff bound team, but now? I believe the inverse is true. The Lions will aim to prove to us and to themselves that they might very well BE that playoff bound team. Imagine that.
Pick: Lions Cover
Buffalo Bills (-9.5) vs New York Jets
It seems like just yesterday that Zach Wilson and the Jets upset the Bills and were on the upswing. Since that day in Week 9, Zach Wilson has lost his job and Mike White has emerged as a pretty capable replacement for New York. Throwing for a combined 684 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs in the 2 games since his promotion, White has given the Jets a downfield element that was lacking with Wilson at the helm.
Their opponents in Buffalo have rebounded well from the 2 game slide precipitated by said Jets. Josh Allen seems to have recovered from whatever lingering injuries were bothering him and has returned to the all world talent we all know.
There’s something to be said for revenge in this tilt, however it really doesn’t feel like a game the Bills win by 10+. Mike White and the Jets’ defence give them a chance and it will at the very least require a complete effort on Buffalo’s part. Bills win this one at home and get their revenge, but not in blowout fashion.
Pick: Jets Beat the Spread
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Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Steelers Cover
Steelers 20 – Ravens 17
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Eagles Cover
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs Cleveland Browns
The Bengals proved me right last week and I salute them for that. Joe Burrow has planted himself firmly in the MVP leaderboard and may very well be the best Quarterback in the league at this point in the season. Burrow and the Bengals are acutely aware of their recent struggles to beat their Ohio rival Browns. Cleveland has won the last 5 matchups and smacked Cincinnati 32-13 in the most recent encounter.
The Bengals are also aware that they were deprived of WR Ja’Marr Chase in that game and we’re still figuring out what they had in RB Samaje Perine. Since that loss in Week 8, Perine has emerged as a potent double threat back, contributing on the ground as much as in the pass game. With Joe Burrow’s full arsenal available to him, Cinci posses a mammoth challenge to any team right now. They’ll buck the trend and win this edition of the Battle of Ohio in a big way.
Pick: Bengals Cover
Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans are this year’s Falcons for me, which is to say, I’m damned if I do and damned if I don’t. Put my faith in them, they let me down, shade them and they’ll look like world beaters.
The Jaguars present a similar quandary. Which version of the team, and more importantly, which version of Trevor Lawrence will show up on any given Sunday?
This one may be clarified by the fact that the aforementioned Lawrence is dealing with a foot injury. At time of writing his status for this one remains uncertain and even if he is to go, you’d have to believe the chances of seeing peak Lawrence are slim to none.
Therefore I will put my faith in the Titans and hope that the roll of the dice comes good. Though the dice may well be cursed.
Pick: Titans Cover
Dallas Cowboys (-16.5) vs Houston Texans
This is a terrifying line and normally I wouldn’t go anywhere near it. Add to that the presumed extra motivation of the Battle of Texas and everything is telling me to play it safe and pick the Texans.
The Boys are averaging an obscene 37 points per game with Dak Prescott under center. They are a powerhouse team that can win in every conceivable way. This line does not show up from nothing, it has slowly and steadily gotten ready for this matchup. Feeding on the Cowboys performances and the lack thereof for the Texans.
This line is a monster in the same way the Cowboys are. Embrace the monster.
Pick: Cowboys Cover
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) @ Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes is 9-0 against the Broncos. He’s mad that he still can’t beat the Bengals. He’ll see another orange team across from him and like a bull seeing red will exercise his frustrations. Don’t overthink it.
Pick: Chiefs Cover
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Seahawks Cover
Seahawks 27 – Panthers 16
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: 49ers Cover
49ers 26 – Buccaneers 19
Sunday Primetime Game
Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers
The Dolphins travel back to California for the second weekend in a row, aiming to keep hold of their faltering playoff position. The Chargers will be aiming to exploit their travel weary opponents from Miami and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Very tough one to call and it feels a little like a trap. My faith in Miami as the superior team here was certainly shaken by last week’s defeat at the hands of the 49ers. The Fins did not look good and more importantly Tua Tagovailoa looked flat out bad.
As inconsistent as the Chargers have been and both teams aside, who wouldn’t take Justin Herbert over Tua if given the choice? Herbert inspires more confidence in me at this stage and while it’s been hard to peg LA this year, I’ll roll with Herbert at home, especially with a healthy Keenan Allen to throw to.
Pick: Chargers Beat the Spread
Chargers 30 – Dolphins 27
New England Patriots (-1.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Had you asked me a few weeks ago, this would have been a slam dunk pick for the Patriots. Now things seem a little murkier. The Cards are coming off a much needed bye and will be fielding possibly the healthiest lineup they’ve had. Kyler Murray returns at QB and coach Kliff Kingsbury is fighting for his job. Arizona will be as motivated as they can be, and in front of their home fans to boot.
On the other hand there’s a stink around the Patriots at the moment, and the toughness of their remaining schedule does not bode well. Matchups with a surging Las Vegas, the Dolphins, Bengals and Bills may have already sealed New England’s fate.
A loss here may well send the Pats into a tailspin and ask some serious questions about the future make-up of the team and coaching staff.
Pick: Cardinals Beat the Spread
Cardinals 24 – Patriots 21
2022 NFL Season FAQ
What NFL Teams Have a Bye Week in Week 14?
Week 14: Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders
What is the 2022 NFL Bye Week Schedule?
Week 6: Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans
Week 7: Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles
Week 8: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers
Week 9: Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers
Week 10: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, New York Jets
Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 13: Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers
Week 14: Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders
What are the Week 14 NFL Power Rankings?
Kansas City Chiefs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Las Vegas Raiders
Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Chargers
New Orleans Saints
New England Patriots
San Francisco 49ers
New York Jets
New York Giants
Los Angeles Rams
(Per ESPN Power Index)
What is the Week 14 NFL Schedule?
Thursday, December 8, 2022
Las Vegas @ Los Angeles 20:15
Sunday, December 11, 2022
New York @ Buffalo 13:00
Cleveland @ Cincinnati 13:00
Houston @ Dallas 13:00
Minnesota @ Detroit 13:00
Jacksonville @ Tennessee 13:00
Philadelphia @ New York 13:00
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh 13:00
Kansas City @ Denver 16:05
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 16:25
Carolina @ Seattle 16:25
Miami @ Los Angeles 20:20
Monday, December 12, 2022
New England @ Arizona 20:15
What are CSB’s Week 14 Picks Against the Spread?
When are the next week’s NFL Lines set?
Typically oddsmakers will set the next week’s Game Lines after the Sunday slate of games. NFL Odds will evolve as bets are made throughout the week and NFL Picks made too early may lack vital information. The NFL Point Spreads are set with a somewhat unclear picture and NFL predictions become more informed as the games get closer.